Week 13 waiver wire reactions

Our MathBox™-centric assessment of this week’s trendiest waiver adds based on our Value Over Replacement metric.

Ok everyone. Here we are. Last week of the regular season. While it’s getting harder every week to find people—and the waiver wire is starting to look more picked over than Saturday’s Thanksgiving leftovers—we’ve got a few pickups to help you salt away those playoff berths you’ve been working so hard for this season.

Let’s do this.

Note: Listed rankings and insights are based on MathBox’s preliminary Week 13 rankings from the information available going into Week 11. Every week, MathBox makes projections through Week 17. Although we’ll have updated Week 13 projections coming out this Thursday, we wanted to post waiver wire suggestions before those new projections were available so you would have time to make moves in your league.

Case Keenum. Yes, yes and yes. With 282 yards, two passing touchdowns and another rushing, Keenum had one of the best weeks of any QB in Week 12. MathBox is behind on his ascension, especially in preliminary rankings. But owned in about 37 percent of leagues, he’s fine for at least a spot start against Atlanta in what could be a very similar performance to last week.

Just when we were predicting his demise, McCown comes through with 307 yards, three TDs and no turnovers against Carolina. With a sliding Kansas City up next at hoe, he could be poised to have another decent day, although not likely of the same caliber as Week 12. If you need to gamble on someone with upside, he’s someone who could pay off if the hot streak continues.

Two rushing touchdowns saved his day as Bortles was in position to have another single-digit point offering in fantasy, but two weeks in a row of 160 yards or less passing makes it seem like this might be a trend as we head down the home stretch. To top is off, he still hasn’t thrown more than one touchdown in a game since Week 3. Indianapolis in Week 13 is enticing in some ways, but he might be handing the ball off a lot if the Jaguars get a lead, even further limiting his upside. Despite the matchup, we might be

Burkhead had his best fantasy performance of the year against Miami with 50 rushing yards on 13 carries (both season highs) and both a rushing and receiving touchdown. His touches keep increasing and he’s found the end zone in two of his past three outings. It’s simultaneously tough to argue for or against Burkhead by the simple fact that he’s in a fickle and unpredictable Patriots backfield. At this point Dion Lewis is picked up in most leagues and Burkhead is one of the few remaining RB options on the market that can reasonably help your team. Another solid week and he probably won’t be widely available.

It’s no secret that we’ve been big fans of Robert Woods on the FO podcast—and basically out on Sammy Watkins all year. With Woods out, both Kupp and Watkins got a target bump this week with Kupp getting the most (11) and Watkins getting the TD. We think the targets will keep coming to both as long as Woods is out. Since Kupp is ~60% owned right now, he’s the one you can still get to help your team down the stretch. MathBox likes him well enough—at 11 targets in a very good matchup against Arizona, Kupp projects to be a low end WR2.

Everyone’s talking about Robby Anderson’s insane line from Sunday, but what about Kearse? With McCown looking like a pro again and the Jets likely to be playing from behind most week, it seems like a WR getting between 25% and 30% of the target share each week could be worth an add. With a projected 8–10 targets and a great matchup against KC, Kearse is ripe to get you flex/low-end WR2 numbers in Week 13.

Been lucky with your TE spot starts this year… but not lucky enough to have someone stick? If you’re still looking for someone to help at TE this week, Seals-Jones could the guy to help keep you alive. He’s just started seeing the field regularly in the last couple of weeks, but he’s definitely made an impression. In the last 2 weeks he’s had 11 targets, 7 receptions… and 3 touchdowns. It could be smoke and mirrors, or it could be a Week 13 gold mine. Given the state of TE this year, I’m definitely willing to give Seals-Jones a chance.

That’s it for this week. We’d love to hear what you think about our approach to the waiver wire — and how you think it can be improved.

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